So, it has begun. Rishi Sunak managed to surprise the entire Westminster establishment when he kicked off the general election campaign on Wednesday. Polling day is just 4 days into the second half of the year, which is when he repeatedly said the election would take place. He could have gone until late January 2025, or more realistically mid-December to avoid Christmas, the smart money was on November. The reason political watchers expected a late autumn election was simple, Prime Ministers rarely give up power earlier than they have to. This is an election without precedent in modern times, Sunak still had the better part of six months to extend his stay in No.10, but has fired the starting gun on a campaign he has already admitted Labour are favourites in.
When Harold Wilson (1970) and Ted Heath (1974) called early elections they expected to win them only to be surprised by the result, both John Major and Gordon Brown went to the end of their respective terms in 1997 and 2010. Put simply, Prime Ministers and parties do not go into the valley of death before the hourglass has emptied. Many of Mr Sunak’s MPs have been shocked and angered by the decision to end their political careers prematurely.
The biggest question in Westminster on Wednesday was therefore why now? Mr Sunak has not really answered that directly, but reporting from those in the know in No.10 indicates that he and his inner circle (though notably not his chief election strategist) felt they could not control events and decided to seize the initiative. This was not a rush decision and has been planned for at least a month. The rain-soaked, protest-afflicted, Downing Street speech was hardly an auspicious start, but of course if Sunak pulls off the biggest political upset of modern times it will be seen as his battler moment, akin to John Major’s soap box in 1992.
This does not feel like 1992 however, the Labour poll lead is much more like that in 1997 and Starmer, though flawed, feels far more Prime Ministerial than Neil Kinnock. The level of unhappiness with the Tories is much more visceral, living standards have fallen over the course of this parliament, principally because of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The Liz Truss 49 day catastrophe has had a very minimal impact on the overall economic picture, but it is fixed very firmly in voters’ minds. The Labour line that all the economic misery is the Tories fault is palpably untrue, as shown by the hard economic times across Western Europe, but Truss means nobody is interested in hearing the Tories side of things.
Whilst the local elections indicated Labour support was softer than the national opinion polls they also showed a very efficient Labour vote, picking up support where it needed to, and strong anti-Tory tactical voting. We are also now in a period of lower party identification, essentially more swingy voters. Hence why Labour can go from its worst result in 80 years at the last election to potentially winning a landslide this time. The long campaign could give Labour opportunities to slip up but may also test the total indiscipline of the Tory ranks to complete breaking point. A 1993 Canada style Conservative wipeout has risen up both the bookies and the pundits’ talking points, the assumption that because it hasn’t happened before it can’t this time feels less and less safe. On the other end of the scale the Labour Party is nowhere near the confidence and security of its 1997 incarnation, and in actual votes just three weeks ago it polled well below what it did in local elections before that election. Scotland will be important in Labour’s electoral calculus, they had over 40 seats in Scotland even in losing the 2010 election, they currently hold just 2.
This does not feel like a sea change election in the sense that the country is moving towards a clear alternative path, the level of general disillusionment and apathy is too strong, turnout will probably be down. The campaign does still have the potential to alter how the next five years plays out. I cannot believe Labour will not win an overall majority, but there is big difference between a government with a majority of 20 and one of 200. Similarly, the future direction of the Conservative Party and its ability to bounce back will be heavily influenced by who survives the charge of the light brigade and how many forces they can muster. If the Tories can keep to around the 200 seat mark the job of rebuilding will be much easier than if they fall to sub-1997 levels of less than 150 seats, some polls even suggest a result below 100. The Liberal Democrats present a huge threat in swathes of the south of England even as their national polling numbers remain underwhelming. For the sake of good government, accountability and democracy it has to be hoped a decent enough rump of the Tories survive to keep Labour on their toes.
John Curtice said recently that Labour would face a significant challenge in staying popular once in office. They are currently making a virtue of not over-promising, whilst sticking to the mantra that they will deliver significant economic growth. Yet nothing they have announced so far, including extremely modest planning reforms, and signing a veterinary agreement with the EU, will do much at all to improve our long post-2008 economic stagnation. Given some of their promises on public services and the overall fiscal picture, tax rises seem very probable, which would also undermine growth. The magic growth tree does not exist, so their best hope would be that after years of global and domestic political instability things turn a corner and the good times return, but internationally that seems unlikely to put it mildly.
So as the Tories enter the grim march to defeat and Labour focus on ensuring total victory the country will likely be unmoved, expecting bad times whatever the outcome. Real national renewal may have to wait on the next generation of political leaders.
Bard Land 